Risikobaseret regulering som tillidsbevarende mekanisme i en uforudsigelig verden – rationaler, dilemmaer og paradokser

  • Per Henriksen Institut for Produktion og Erhvervsøkonomi, Copenhagen Business School.
Nøgleord: Tillid, Samfundskontakt, Risiko, Usikkerhed, Samfundslederskab, Paradokser, Risikobaseret regulering, Kompleksitet

Resumé

Den moderne verden er kompleks og dynamisk. Usikkerhed og uforudsigelighed råder, og det stiller store krav til den måde, vi forvalter de samfundsmæssige processer på. For i en usikker verden er tilliden til samfundets centrale institutioner og de systemiske organisationer af endnu større betydning, når vi skal opretholde et velfungerende velfærdssamfund. Alligevel oplever vi en række sager, f.eks. relateret til SKAT, sundhedssektoren og den finansielle sektor, der udfordrer vores indlejrede oplevelse af tillid til systemet. Men hvorfor får vi disse sager, og kan de undgås? En del af svaret ligger muligvis i det paradoks, at vi konsekvent søger at håndtere usikkerhed og uforudsigelighed ud fra strategier og principper, der er rodfæstet i en verdensopfattelse af forudsigelige kausale sammenhænge. Artiklen argumenterer for, at den opfattelse har konsekvenser, fordi årsags-virknings-sammenhænge ofte kendetegnes ved det stik modsatte, nemlig uigennemskuelighed og deraf, uforudsigelighed. Artiklen tager afsæt i paradigmet om risikobaseret regulering og kontrol som eksponent for  samfundsmæssige strømninger om rationel kausalitet, der har gjort risikostyring til et dominerende, men også tvetydigt svar på næsten alting. På den baggrund diskuteres 3 centrale udfordringer (strategisk ideologi, motiv- / praktik-kobling og risiko- / usikkerheds-tolkning), som risikobaseret regulering bør adressere for at afstemme intention med modernitetens natur. Den overordnede konklusion er, at ureflekteret tiltro til  risikobaseret regulering og kontrol som universel metodik, er en farefyldt vej for samfundskontrakten, fordi paradigmet i praksis ignorerer verdens diskontinuitet og betydningen af samme. 

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Publiceret
2020-08-05
Sektion
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