Trump's Playbook of Electoral Manipulation: An Interplay of Manipulation Tactics in a Longstanding Democracy
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22439/asca.v56i1.7173Keywords:
autocratization, elections, electoral manipulation, political parties, United StatesAbstract
The attempt by former President Donald Trump to manipulate the United States’ 2020 presidential elections is a salient example of how electoral manipulation has changed to adapt to the new political and societal context that marks present-day elections. This highlights the need for a novel approach to help us better understand electoral manipulation, which is becoming increasingly common all over the world. This article addresses this need by presenting a novel framework for examining electoral manipulation in the United States in the 2020s. A novel feature of the framework is a focus on the interplay between different manipulation tactics. It identifies nine electoral manipulation tactics that interact with and reinforce each other: breaking democratic norms, disinformation, gerrymandering, voter suppression, hacking and leaking, collusion with foreign states, intraparty pressure, intimidation and violence, and corrupting state and government institutions.
References
Aaltola, Mika. Democratic Vulnerability and Autocratic Meddling: The "Thucydidean Brink" in Regressive Geopolitical Competition. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54602-1.
Benkler, Yochai, Robert Faris, and Hal Roberts. Network Propaganda: Manipulation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in American Politics. New York: Oxford Academic, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190923624.001.0001.
Benkler, Yochai, et al. “Mail-In Voter Fraud: Anatomy of a Disinformation Campaign.” Berkman Center Research Publication 6 (2020). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3703701.
Bermeo, Nancy. “On Democratic Backsliding.” Journal of Democracy 27.1 (2016): 5–19. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2016.0012.
Birch, Sarah. Electoral Malpractice. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199606160.001.0001.
Boese, Vanessa A., et al. “State of the World 2021: Autocratization Changing Its Nature?” Democratization 29.6 (2022): 983–1013. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2022.2069751.
Calingaert, Daniel. “Election Rigging and How to Fight It.” Journal of Democracy 17.3 (2006): 138–51. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2006.0043.
Cheeseman, Nic, and Brian Klaas. How to Rig an Election. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2018. https://doi.org/10.12987/9780300235210.
Chen, Jowei, and David Cottrell. “Evaluating Partisan Gains from Congressional Gerrymandering: Using Computer Simulations to Estimate the Effect of Gerrymandering in the U.S. House.” Electoral Studies 44 (2016): 329–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.06.014.
Clayton, Katherine, et al. “Elite Rhetoric Can Undermine Democratic Norms.” PNAS 118.23 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024125118.
Coppedge, Michael, et al. “V-Dem Codebook v13.” Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project, 2023. https://v-dem.net/documents/24/codebook_v13.pdf.
Electoral Integrity Project. “PEI Index Core Questions.” https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/pei-core-questions.
Elklit, Jørgen, and Andrew Reynolds. “A Framework for the Systematic Study of Election Quality.” Democratization 12.2 (2005): 147–62. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340500069204.
Epperly, Brad, et al. “Rule by Violence, Rule by Law: Lynching, Jim Crow, and the Continuing Evolution of Voter Suppression in the U.S.” Perspectives on Politics 18.3 (2020): 756–69. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592718003584.
Garnett, Holly Ann, Toby S. James, and Madison MacGregor. Electoral Integrity Global Report 2019–2021. The Electoral Integrity Project, 2022. https://www.electoralintegrityproject.com/globalreport2019-2021.
Gearan, Anne. “Trump Skipping His Successor’s Inauguration Is His Final Defiance of Presidential Norms.” Washington Post, 8 Jan. 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-skipping-his-successors-inauguration-is-his-final-defiance-of-presidential-norms/2021/01/08/a0e08c74-51e4-11eb-83e3-322644d82356_story.html.
Ginsberg, Benjamin L. “My Party is Destroying Itself on the Altar of Trump.” Washington Post, 1 Nov. 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/01/ben-ginsberg-voter-suppression-republicans/.
Grose, Christian R., et al. “The Worst Partisan Gerrymanders in U.S. State Legislatures.” University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy, 2019. https://schwarzenegger.usc.edu/the-worst-partisan-gerrymanders-in-u-s-state-legislatures/.
Hasen, Richard L. Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2020. https://doi.org/10.12987/9780300252866.
Huq, Aziz, and Tom Ginsburg. “How to Lose a Constitutional Democracy.” UCLA Law Review 65.1 (2018): 78–169. https://www.uclalawreview.org/lose-constitutional-democracy/.
Hyde, Susan, and Nikolay Marinov. “Codebook for National Elections Across Democracy and Autocracy Dataset, 5.0.” 20 Nov. 2019. https://nelda.co/#codebook.
James, Toby, and Holly Ann Garnett. “What Is Electoral Integrity? Reconceptualising Election Quality.” European Consortium of Political Research General Conference, Prague, 4–8 Sept. 2023.
“Konstruktivismi” [Constructivism]. Jyväskylä: Jyväskylän yliopisto, 2015. https://koppa.jyu.fi/avoimet/hum/menetelmapolkuja/menetelmapolku/tieteenfilosofiset-suuntaukset/konstruktivismi.
Krasno, Jonathan, et al. “Can Gerrymanders Be Detected? An Examination of Wisconsin’s State Assembly.” American Politics Research 47.5 (2019): 1162–1201. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X18767890.
Lehoucq, Fabrice. “Electoral Fraud: Causes, Types, and Consequences.” Annual Review of Political Science 6 (2003): 233–56. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.6.121901.085655.
Lucas, Ryan. “Giuliani Distances Himself from Ukrainian Sanctioned by U.S. as Russian Agent.” NPR, 11 Sept. 2020. https://www.npr.org/2020/09/11/911957914/giuliani-distances-himself-from-ukrainian-sanctioned-by-u-s-as-russian-agent.
Luttig, J. Michael. “Opinion: The Republican Blueprint to Steal the 2024 Election.” CNN, 27 Apr. 2022. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/27/opinions/gop-blueprint-to-steal-the-2024-election-luttig/index.html.
Magleby, Daniel B., et al. “Gerrymandering.” Electoral Integrity in America: Securing Democracy, edited by Pippa Norris, Sarah Cameron, and Thomas Wynter, New York: Oxford University Press, 2019, 83–101.
Mansky, Jackie. “The Age-Old Problem of ‘Fake News.’” Smithsonian Magazine, 7 May 2018. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/age-old-problem-fake-news-180968945/.
McCartan, Cory, et al. “Simulated Redistricting Plans for the Analysis and Evaluation of Redistricting in the United States.” Scientific Data 9 (2022): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01808-2.
Morgenbesser, Lee. “The Menu of Autocratic Innovation”. Democratization 27.6 (2020): 1053–72. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2020.1746275.
Mueller, Robert S. Report on The Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election: Volume I of II. Washington, DC: United States Department of Justice. https://www.justice.gov/archives/sco/file/1373816/download.
Norris, Pippa. Why American Elections Are Flawed (And How to Fix Them). Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2017. https://doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501713408.001.0001.
---. Why Electoral Integrity Matters. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2014.
Pew Research Center. “Sharp Divisions on Vote Counts, as Biden Gets High Marks for His Post-Election Conduct.” Pew Research Center, 20 Nov. 2020. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/11/20/the-voting-experience-in-2020/
“President Donald Trump Impeached.” History.com, 18 Dec. 2019. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/president-trump-impeached-house-of-representatives.
Ruggie, John Gerard. “What Makes the World Hang Together? Neo-Utilitarianism and the Social Constructivist Challenge.” International Organization 52.4 (1998): 855–85. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081898550770.
Schedler, Andreas. “Elections Without Democracy: The Menu of Manipulation.” Journal of Democracy 13.2 (2002): 36–50. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2002.0031.
Searle, John. The Construction of Social Reality. New York: Free Press, 1995.
Select Committee. Final Report. Washington, DC: Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol, 22 Dec. 2022. https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-J6-REPORT/.
Simpser, Alberto. “How to Un-Rig an Election.” Journal of Democracy 30.1 (2019): 172–77. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2019.0013.
Svolik, Milan W. “Polarization Versus Democracy.” Journal of Democracy 30.3 (2019): 20–32. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2019.0039.
“The Washington Post.” AllSides, July 2021. https://www.allsides.com/news-source/washington-post-media-bias.
“The Washington Post.” Britannica, 2023. https://www.britannica.com/topic/The-Washington-Post.
White House. “Memorandum of Telephone Conversation.” 24 Sept. 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/25/us/politics/trump-ukraine-transcript.html.
Wiebrecht, Felix, et al. “State of the World 2022: Defiance in the Face of Autocratization.” Democratization 30.5 (2023): 769–93. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2023.2199452.
Zhang, Yan, and Barbara M. Wildemuth. “Qualitative Analysis of Content.” https://www.ischool.utexas.edu/~yanz/Content_analysis.pdf.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Maria Lindén
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
